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epidemiology, former Research Fellow at Harvard Medical School. We supplemented these experimental observations with epidemiologic analysis that showed evidence of modest serotype-specific immunity to colonization (collaboration with Ron Dagan‘s group), and acquisition of duration-reducing immunity to all serotypes in the first years of life (collaboration with Anthony Scott’s group including Osman Abdullahi). Research Interests: Causal inference Design and analysis of experiments Design and analysis of observational studies Health outcomes research Public policy. Bill Hanage is an active collaborator on this project. Marc Lipsitch, DPhil, is professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. That work began with a mathematical modeling study motivated by concerns about serotype replacement following the use of serotype-specific conjugate vaccines and with an experimental demonstration in mice that different strains of pneumococcus compete to colonize the upper respiratory tract. We are also interested in the statistical problems of estimating vaccine effects in trials (two separate chapters of Justin O’Hagan’s doctoral thesis) and the problems of incorporating vaccines into models of transmission dynamics. Harvard doctor explains how at-home coronavirus tests work Dr. Michael Mina, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s School of Public Health, said testing has been one of … Scientific questions of particular interest in population genomic studies include the role of immune selection in diversifying antigens other than the capsule in S. pneumoniae. Bill Hanage is an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. Advertisement - story continues below. With Gabriela Gomes we have been exploring the consequences of modeling vaccines as shifting the dose-response curve to the right. Because antimicrobial use affects not only the individual who uses it, but also the pathogen population, much of our effort has been to define the effects of antimicrobial use at the population level, focusing on S. pneumoniae drug resistance, resistance in hospital-acquired infections, among others. Development of new methods for infectious disease data analysis. Chan School of Public Health and director of the school’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, emphasized five areas in which the federal government must act during the next 12 to 18 months, beginning immediately, he said.. 1. B.A., 1991, Philosophy, Yale University Tobias Kurth, MD, ScD. At the time, colleagues and I pointed out the limitations and risks of such experiments, with a subsequent collaboration with Alison Galvani focusing attention on ethical aspects and alternative approaches, and on the barriers to achieving the experiments’ claimed public health goals. Talia Quandelacy‘s master’s thesis applied this approach to age- and sex-specific risks. Fixing that problem only made the problem harder. The seasonality of infectious diseases is one of the oldest observations in medicine, yet the mechanisms underlying seasonality are poorly understood. Work in this area in our laboratory was led by Krzysztof Trzcinski. reduces duration of colonization rather than preventing acquisition, modest serotype-specific immunity to colonization, duration-reducing immunity to all serotypes in the first years of life, cotransfer of capsular and resistance loci, impact of antimicrobial use on resistance at the individual level, interpretation of clinical trial data to assess this impact, dynamics of resistance are intrinsically slow in the population, estimating serotype differences in disease severity, reproductive number of pandemic influenza in fall, 1918, decision-making under uncertainty during the pandemic, predispensing of antivirals to high-risk persons to be life-saving, targeting high-risk persons for vaccination, ~20% increase in the reproductive number of pandemic flu when schools opened, resistance in hospital-acquired infections, veterinary antimicrobial use in promoting resistance in human medicine, methods for analysis of antimicrobial resistance data, is associated with transfer of methicillin-resistant, role of absolute humidity in driving flu seasonality in temperate regions, pandemic influenza would not likely resurge in the US in winter 2010, except modestly in the Southeast, won the first CDC flu forecasting competition, improved regression framework to estimate the mortality burden from seasonal influenza, ~13% of meningococcal disease in the US was flu-attributable, vaccines as shifting the dose-response curve to the right, examines this question experimentally using two vaccines against diseases of salmon, assessing serotype replacement vs. unmasking in pneumococci, Hidden Markov models for hospital-acquired infections, ntervention targeting based on age-specific incidence patterns, etiologic investigations of Kawasaki disease, seasonal variability in mean age of incidence, population genomic analysis involving epidemiologic “metadata” can enhance public health, Whole-genome sequencing of E. coli O104:H4 isolates, place it in the context of other outbreaks, Longitudinal eep sequencing of respiratory syncitial virus. Recent efforts have included an outline of the calculations that should enter such an assessment (with Tom Inglesby) and pieces for more general readers including a debate in Nature Reviews Microbiology and an opinion piece Scientific American. Duration-reducing immunity, although not specific to individual serotypes, has a disproportionate impact on the long-duration (high fitness) serotypes because it reduces their duration of carriage proportionally more. I also served on “Team B” for the United States CDC, providing external advice during the pandemic. Caroline Buckee. We have also shown, in work led by Yuan Li on a small genome sample that signals of diversifying selection are statistically apparent in proteins targeted by antibodies, and specifically in epitope regions. zaslavsk@stat.harvard.edu. Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch says that the coronavirus will not be containable and that 40-70 of people worldwide will be infected. She found that the combination of weak serotype-specific immunity (which enhances within-serotype competition) and duration-reducing, cross-serotype immunity (but neither alone) was capable of counteracting strong directional selection in favor of the “high-fitness” serotypes. Professor of Occupational Medicine and Epidemiology, Elkan Blout Professor of Environmental Genetics, Harvard School of Public Health ; Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School; Physician, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Dr. Christiani was the first visiting scholar from the Harvard Chan School to the PRC, chosen in 1980, to work in residence. We have developed and applied an improved regression framework to estimate the mortality burden from seasonal influenza, including multiple listed causes of disease. In a mid-day conference call on Friday, March 20, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, a professor at the Harvard T.H. These relationships, shown in the figure, are summarized here and here. Dr. Marc Lipsitch is a Professor of Epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health with a primary appointment in the Department of Epidemiology and a joint appointment in the Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases. According to Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch, this contributes to his prediction that coronavirus “will ultimately not be containable.” “Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected … Department Affiliate, Associate Professor of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School. An initial hypothesis that dynamics of resistance are intrinsically slow in the population has been refuted by analysis of the dynamics of resistance in Israel. Chan School of Public Health, General Principles for Choosing a Graduate Program or Postdoctoral Fellowship, Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Interdisciplinary Concentration in Infectious Disease Epidemiology, patterns of coexistence of pathogen strains in space and time. Among the topics of his interview on “The Ingraham Angle” was a CNN segment from Tuesday, where a CNN host claimed the drug is fatal to those who take it. Antimicrobial resistance in S. pneumoniae. This has developed into systematic efforts at influenza forecasting centered in the Shaman Lab, which has taken leadership of this strand of research and which won the first CDC flu forecasting competition. When we use mathematical models to scale up vaccine effects on the individual to predict effects at the population level, we make strong assumptions about the how the vaccine alters an individual’s risk of infection over multiple exposures. With Megan Murray, James Robins and several other collaborators we made one of the earliest estimates of the reproductive number of the SARS virus during the spring of 2003, and later applied the same approaches to estimate the reproductive number of pandemic influenza in fall, 1918, showing it was around 2. In addition to these projects in population biology, we have a continuing interest in the applied epidemiology of pneumococcal carriage and disease. Modeling work (with Caroline Buckee) focuses on studies of the population-biologic effects of such immune responses. Pneumococcal population genomics and protein diversity. With Laura White and collaborators at CDC we made an early estimate of the pandemic reproductive number from CDC line list data. With Jeff Shaman, we correctly projected that no winter 2010 wave of the pandemic would likely occur in the US, apart from a small one in the Southeast. We are currently undertaking sequencing of a comparably-sized collection of pneumococci from Navajo and White Mountain Apache populations in the Southwestern US, in collaboration with Kate O’Brien of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. I am Professor of Epidemiology with primary appointment in the Department of Epidemiology and a joint appointment in the Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, where my wet lab is located. He is an author of more than 250 peer-reviewed publications on antimicrobial resistance, epidemiologic methods, mathematical modeling of infectious disease transmission, pathogen population genomics, and immunoepidemiology of … Chan School of Public Health Presented jointly by The Forum at the Harvard T.H. These signals are not present in proteins putatively targeted by CD4+ Th17 cells, perhaps reflecting the ability of such cells to prevent immune escape by acting in trans. website. “These are our hope,” said Michal Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Want to keep up-to-date on the latest department news? Kolokotrones Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. Using experimental and epidemiologic approaches, we worked for over a decade on the question of how different serotypes of the pathogen coexist despite seemingly large fitness differences between different serotypes. Harvard T.H. I am Professor of Epidemiology with primary appointment in the Department of Epidemiology and a joint appointment in the Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, where my wet lab is located. By any measure of human health or well-being, this year has been catastrophic. A more basic question, still unsolved, is why drug-susceptible and -resistant strains of pneumococci coexist at the population level over long periods. In June, Tyler Vanderweele, professor of epidemiology and director of Harvard’s Human Flourishing Program, found some information that surprised him. Chan School of Public Health and director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. We hope to design a randomized trial of humidification to reduce influenza transmission, and have collaborated on preliminary studies to that end. He discussed the prospects for mitigating a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential approaches to faster development of a vaccine, with JAMA Editor-in-Chief Howard Bauchner, MD, on Dr. Bauchner’s … This suggested the possibility of effective control measures, despite the difficulties inherent in controlling an illness in which transmission could precede symptoms. Dr. Harvey Risch, … With many collaborators, we were heavily involved in analyzing data and providing advice to public health authorities during the 2009 influenza pandemic. Holding a PhD in the History of Science and an SM from the Harvard School of Public Health, her work addresses the culture, politics, and ethics of measurement in public health and community medicine. HIV transmission modeling and behavioral aspects of STI transmission. Quantitative studies considered the impact of antimicrobial use on resistance at the individual level and the interpretation of clinical trial data to assess this impact. I recently co-founded the Society for Safe Science with Marcel Salathé. Harvard T.H. Dr. Harvey Risch, epidemiology professor at the Yale School of Public Health, joins Laura Ingraham with insight on 'The Ingraham Angle.' Antimicrobial resistance. Seasonal influenza: mechanisms and forecasting. With … But I never made it past the first page. Early work focused on measuring the in vivo fitness cost of resistance and documenting the cotransfer of capsular and resistance loci in the lab. He also directs the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, a center of excellence funded by the MIDAS program of NIH/NIGMS, and the … Marc Lipsitch is Professor of Epidemiology and Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Much of this work has been led by Daniel Weinberger, first while he was in our group and recently while he is on the faculty at Yale. Chan School of Public Health’s Nancy Krieger discusses the impact that COVID-19 is having on communities of color. On October 2014 the White House announced a 1-year funding pause on such experiments, pending a risk-benefit assessment. Chan School of Public Health and The World from PRX & GBH Tuesday, October 13, 2020 The COVID-19 death toll has surpassed 200,000 people in the United States, and areas of the country continue to see surges. By Marcello Ferrada de Noli, Swedish professor emeritus of public health sciences esp. Director, Institute of Public Health, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin Adjunct Professor of Epidemiology, Harvard Chan School of Public Health. In an article entitled You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus , the Atlantic explains how the coronavirus is particularly dangerous because it may cause cause no symptoms at all in many carriers of the infection. Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and of Epidemiology. Associate Professor of Epidemiology. A 2015 debate on the topic at the Cambridge Center for the Study of Existential Risk with Derek Smith lays out the major issues. Assistant or Associate Professor of Epidemiology. The Department of Epidemiology is currently seeking candidates for the position of Assistant/Associate Professor of Radiation Epidemiology and the position of Assistant or Associate Professor of Epidemiology. Professor of Public Health and Epidemiology. Dr. Michael Mina, MD, PhD is an Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health and a core member of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics (CCDD). Bill Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Assistant Professor of Epidemiology. Chan School of Public Health. Studies have focused on the dynamics of serotypes and drug resistance, as well as clonal dynamics and invasiveness. Additionally, collaborating with colleagues at the CDC’s Active Bacterial Core surveillance, we have assessed trends in resistance at the national level and partitioned these into effects of changing serotype distribution and changing resistance within serotype, both before and since the introduction of conjugate vaccines. Chan School of Public Health. Chan School of Public Health. Academic Departments, Divisions and Centers. Other work has included estimating serotype differences in disease severity, documenting serotype replacement in invasive pneumococcal disease globally (here and here) and investigating the extent to which carriage data can be used to predict invasive disease trends (here and here). Other work focused on how to define optimal targeting of scarce pandemic control measures, including antivirals and vaccines, by taking advantage of the data that may be available early in a pandemic (with Jacco Wallinga) or based on a transmission matrix (with Ed Goldstein and with Stephen Eubank’s group at Virginia Tech) or during the declining phase of an epidemic. Nick Croucher, Bill Hanage and I led analysis of 616 pneumococcal genomes from Massachusetts, collected 2001-7 by the SPARC project led by Jonathan Finkelstein and Grace Lee with Steve Pelton. Streptococcus pneumoniae: immune responses and population biology. Dr. Harvey Risch, a professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health and Yale School of Medicine joined Fox News host Laura Ingraham Wednesday. Projects have included collaboration on  with SPARC, a visionary project led by Jonathan Finkelstein and Grace Lee with collaborators Bill Hanage and Steve Pelton , that provided a nearly unique view of the epidemiology of pneumococcal carriage through the introduction of two vaccines, PCV7 and PCV13. Currently we are working with several groups to model the impact of pneumococcal vaccine programs. CNN anchor Brianna Keilar … Projects include: Science Policy: Creating Potential Pandemic Pathogens (PPP) in the Laboratory. We have worked on a variety of topics related to drug resistance in bacteria and viruses, with Bruce Levin, Carl Bergstrom, Megan Murray, Ted Cohen, and Matthew Samore as recurring collaborators. Caroline Buckee (8:46), associate professor of epidemiology, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Facebook Live Q&A with William Hanage, Associate Professor of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Harvard University epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch warned that there is a significantly larger number of people with the coronavirus or COVID-19 than the public thinks that there is. Studies of Streptococcus pneumoniae combine the practical and the population-biological questions, as well as the experimental and quantitative approaches. I have been active in the debate over potential pandemic pathogen creation in the laboratory, arguing that the creation of novel, transmissible virulent influenza strains is unsafe, that the benefits are overstated, and that alternative, safe scientific approaches can provide comparable or greater public health benefits with minimal risk. A longstanding collaboration with Caroline Colijn, Christophe Fraser, Bill Hanage and Ted Cohen continues to explore alternative explanations for the phenomenon. On questions of countermeasure optimization, we derived conditions for the predispensing of antivirals to high-risk persons to be life-saving and estimated the impact of targeting high-risk persons for vaccination. Response to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. Chan School of Public Health Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and Immunology Michael Joseph Mina, MD, PhD made his case in a new TIME magazine column and Twitter thread. I tried to reread “La Peste” [“The Plague”], given the subject matter and the way Camus has influenced my thinking ever since my best friend introduced me to his work. We retain an interest in this area. In July 2014 16 scientists cofounded the Cambridge Working Group, which called for PPP experiments to be curtailed pending a risk-benefit assessment, a call that garnered over 300 signatures from prominent scientists and others. Collaborations with Jeff Shaman to elucidate the role of absolute humidity in driving flu seasonality in temperate regions led to a correct prediction that pandemic influenza would not likely resurge in the US in winter 2010, except modestly in the Southeast. Harvard Epidemiology Professor Declares That The Pandemic Is Just Beginning By Andrew Bieszad on April 17, 2020 in Featured , General A lot of people have decried the “liberal media” and “liberal university professors”, and instead glorified the bankrupcy-laden actor/’businessman’ Trump as a veritable medical expert with his words about hydroxychloroquine. Pandemic preparedness and response. Chan School of Public Health and Brigham and Women’s Hospital. Andrew Beam. In progress are further explorations of the ethical dimensions with Nick Evans. compete to colonize the upper respiratory tract. An exciting collaboration led by Andrew Wargo, including Gabriela and Gael Kurath,  examines this question experimentally using two vaccines against diseases of salmon. Marc Lipsitch is Professor of Epidemiology and Director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Much of my work focuses on the bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) which colonizes the nasopharynx of 30-100% of children worldwide, and causes otitis media, septicemia, pneumonia and meningitis in a small fraction, but a large number of them, with an estimated 800,000+ child deaths a year attributed to pneumococcal disease. I am also the Associate Director of the Interdisciplinary Concentration in Infectious Disease Epidemiology. Mechanisms of vaccine action. 2.1 DEPARTMENT OF EPIDEMIOLOGY ADMINSTRATIVE ORGANIZATIONS Name Title Contact Information Albert Hofman, MD, PhD Department Chair, Stephan B. Kay Family Professor of Public Health 617-432-6477 ahofman@hsph.harvard.edu Deborah Blacker, ScD, MD Deputy Chair, Professor in Epidemiology Blacker@psych.mgh.harvard.edu In the course of studying this question, we realized that our (and others’) earlier mathematical models of serotype coexistence had inadvertently created “coexistence for free” in models by innocuous-seeming mathematical assumptions that corresponded to no known biological mechanism. The initial calibration effort, led by Alethea McCormick and Nadia Abuelezam is here, and further analyses are in progress. A growing focus of our group has been on the population genomics of pathogenic bacteria and viruses, with a focus on how population genomic analysis involving epidemiologic “metadata” can enhance public health. Chan School of Public Health. antimicrobial use) on the population biology of pathogens and the consequences of changing pathogen populations for human health. Given large fitness differences between serotypes and only weak serotype-specific immunity, how can there be so many serotypes; in particular how do the lower-fitness serotypes persist? He is additionally an Assistant Professor in Immunology and Infectious Diseases at HSPH and Associate Medical Director in Clinical Microbiology (molecular diagnostics) in the Department of … My research concerns the effect of naturally acquired host immunity, vaccine-induced immunity and other public health interventions (e.g. We are now fitting this model to the existing data on serotype -specific carriage prevalence, with the goal of modeling the impact of existing conjugate vaccines and other proposed vaccines. Jose Zubizarreta. Scale up “the production of … Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch said that “the data from Korea, once analyzed, will be of great global value in helping to understand these important questions.” #AsiaNewsNetwork Chan School of Public Health. A series of studies in collaboration with the Malley lab at Boston Children’s Hospital showed that much of the acquired immune response to pneumococcal carriage was antibody-independent, and probably independent of complement but dependent on CD4+, Th17 cells and neutrophils. Müge Çevik (21:01), clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology, Infection and Global Health Division, School of Medicine, University of St Andrews. Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s School of Public Health, on Monday issued a stark warning about the dearth of testing for the coronavirus in the U.S. Associate Professor of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. My Reddit AMA on the topic is here. Lisa Berkman. We believe that these are the broad features of the answer to the question of how serotypes coexist despite strong directional selection. Of new methods for infectious disease at CDC we made an early estimate of the first 616 from... 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